2011 bus market trend will be low before high?

According to the data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of passenger cars in China from January to November 2010 were 321,100 and 321,800, respectively, an increase of 29.38% and 33.16% year-on-year respectively. With such a high rate of increase, what is the trend of the passenger car market in 2011? The bus industry is very concerned.

Hu Jiandu, a research engineer at Suzhou Golden Dragon Market, told reporters that in 2011, the overall sales growth of the passenger car market will be 3% to 5%. The main basis for making this judgment is that economist Professor Chen Jiagui predicted on December 7 last year at the 2011 Economic Blue Book conference: China's economy will remain stable at a high level this year, and the growth rate will be basically the same as 2010. At the same level, GDP growth is expected to reach around 10%. He said that if China's economy can maintain growth within the forecasted range, the passenger car market will be closely linked with the country's macro economy, and the production and sales volume of passenger cars will also increase by a certain margin. The overall trend may be low and high.

Economic activities boost demand for buses

Hu Jiandu said that in 2011, the main direction of a prudent monetary policy was tightening. Some of the bus sales are sold through loans. A stable monetary policy will not affect the demand of the passenger car market, but the purchase of cars by users will transfer this pressure to bus companies, which will have a certain impact on the marketing of bus companies.

A prudent monetary policy will play a role in the first half of 2011, making GDP growth in 2011 low and high. As the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, national and local investment will gradually strengthen from the first half to the second half of the year, especially the road construction investment in infrastructure investment will be relatively large, which is better for the passenger car market. Stimulators.

Hu Jiandu said: “With continuous economic growth, passenger traffic will continue to grow, which will continue to drive demand for passenger cars. The Ministry of Transport’s “Twelve Five-Year Plan for Urban Public Transport Development” and “Road Transport The 'Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan Outline' of the 'Two Twelfth Five-Year Plan' has a certain impact on the structural adjustment of the bus industry."

Liu Ming, the market research department of the Economic Information Center of the National Information Center, said that in the next 5 to 10 years, the urbanization process in China will continue to accelerate, the city scale will increase, the urban population will continue to grow, and large, medium, and small cities will be cascaded. In particular, the emergence of urban agglomerations, such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city circle, Shandong peninsula city circle, Guanzhong city circle, Wuhan city circle, etc., the scope of people's travel continues to expand, will increase the demand for passenger cars.

China’s Electrical and Electronics Import and Export Chamber of Commerce’s deputy secretary-general Yang Aiguo told reporters: “China’s passenger cars have obvious advantages in cost and production flexibility. As the economies of various countries gradually emerge from the bottom, the auto market is beginning to pick up, and the demand for large and medium-sized passenger cars will increase. Several free trade zones It will also bring opportunities for passenger car exports."

City bus will stand out

In the light of the slight increase in the overall demand of the passenger car market, the changes in market performance and product structure in each market segment are the subjects of concern to the interviewees.

Hu Jiandu believes that under the guidance of the two plans of the "12th Five-year Development Plan for Urban Public Transport" and the "12th Five-Year Plan for Development of the Road Transportation Industry" of the Ministry of Transport, the urban public transportation market will be relatively large. Demand. The "Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries", which has been adopted by the State in the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" and the State Council Executive Meeting, will have a relatively large stimulating effect on the development of new energy buses. Ten cities and thousands of projects will continue to promote. The implementation of the National IV emission standards will also have an impact on the supply and demand of vehicles. The increase in cost will have less impact on large passenger vehicles and will have a stimulating effect on sales of large passenger vehicles.

The Ministry of Transport proposes that by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the country must basically complete the construction of GPS network control systems for key operating vehicles, and the GPS installation rate of intercity passenger and tourist passenger vehicles, dangerous goods transport vehicles, and emergency support fleet vehicles should reach 100%. The proportion of medium-to-high-class passenger cars and heavy, specialized, and van-type trucks accounted for 40%, 25%, 20%, and 25%, respectively. The transformation rate of the passenger transport lines within 100 kilometers of the country has reached more than 50%, and the rate of passenger transport in rural areas has reached more than 70%. The township bus connection rate reached 99%, and the established system village bus rate reached 90%. The road passenger transport network that is actively connected with other modes of transport has been fully formed. Travel information services including online ticket sales and inter-party ticket sales have been further improved. Compared with 2005, the energy consumption of transport units for operation passengers and trucks has dropped by 3%. And 12%, pollutant emissions decreased by 15% and 30%, respectively, the overall level of noise pollution. These requirements will have a greater impact on the structure of buses.

Although the number of highway passenger vehicles is large, the growth rate of sales in 2010 will remain high. This is mainly due to the suppression of demand during the economic crisis, and the release of demand after the financial crisis. National authorities will strictly control the new routes and capacity, so 2011 Sales are difficult to reach the 2010 level.

Wang Wenbing, Deputy General Manager of Yutong Bus, said that under the stimulation of the World Expo, the tourist bus market performed well in 2010. Many units purchased coaches, but there are signs of overdrafts in demand in 2011, plus road passenger transport to the coach market. Infiltration, the impact of the coach market is not small. Hu Jiandu said that the construction of the high-speed railway will drive the demand for tourist buses. Under the interaction of several factors, the tourist car market sales in 2011 will be the same as in 2010.