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In the second half of this year, the Chinese economy will face the following dilemma: If the appreciation of the renminbi is too rapid, it will face deteriorating exports and employment difficulties. If there is no appreciation, it will face enormous international pressure; it is necessary to increase exports to stimulate the economy, and it is no longer possible. Going to the old road of blindly expanding exports, real estate regulation and control cannot be stopped halfway, but the shrinkage of real estate is also detrimental to the economy; the risk of the macroeconomic policy retreating too early has a second bottom, and retreating too late will increase inflationary pressures.
What are these "dilemmas" issues for the Chinese auto industry, especially the commercial vehicle industry? What kind of impact will it bring? Commercial Automotive News reporters interviewed experts and scholars in the economic and automotive fields and summarized five factors that will affect the trend of the commercial vehicle industry in the second half of the year.
RMB appreciation: The key to export is the market demand
Since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate has soared. The exchange rate between the euro and the yuan once reached 1:8.5. Faced with the pressure of appreciation of the renminbi, can companies that are engaged in the import of spare parts and vehicles in the domestic auto industry get a fortune? On the contrary, what are the implications for the domestic car manufacturers' exports?
Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at Galaxy Securities, said: "For the automotive importers and the negative impact on export companies may offset each Other. Exchange rate appreciation will reduce the cost of imports, but if the car export prices can not lift If it is high, the profits of auto companies will be reduced.At present, there are many auto parts manufacturers in China, because they are processing trades, so there is no way to increase prices, and some other multinational companies deliberately reduce the prices of their products in order to achieve the purpose of paying less taxes. ."
"The exchange rate has always been a double-edged sword. The double-edged sword is good for imports, but it is not conducive to the export of products." Wang Xiaoguang, researcher of the Policy Consulting Department of the National School of Administration believes that: "The issue of exports cannot be considered only from the perspective of RMB interest rates, but should be considered globally. As for the recovery of the automotive market, let demand determine the market capacity of exports. From this starting point, I think the cost of increasing the appreciation of the exchange rate is nothing. Today, commercial vehicle exports have very advantages, including cost advantages and industrial scale advantages. There is no problem with this, but the question is whether there is a market outside or not. Now it seems that there are problems in overseas markets. For example, in Uzbekistan, there are more than 100,000 cars produced in the country, but the growth of domestic cars is not very good, and there are Many countries have wanted to enter the market in Uzbekistan, so I think that judging the export outlook should not look at the exchange rate, but should look at the market. Even if the cost rises, if there is market growth, then there will be no problem."
Monetary policy: Auto finance will not be affected
The trend of monetary policy in the second half of this year determines the degree of difficulty in financing, which will affect the financing chain of commercial vehicle companies and commercial vehicle mortgage loans.
In response, some experts believe that if the Chinese economy wants to develop smoothly, it must lay down inflation expectations and manage the currency's liquidity. "As far as car consumption credits are concerned, banks without quotas will not issue loans. I think that in terms of total volume, compared to last year, China's money supply was not tightened, but rather it was moderately controlled. Last year was because of the currency. The relatively loose policies resulted in very high inflation expectations at the beginning of this year, which caused the growth rate to be excessively fast, so the country began to conduct macro-control and control from the total amount. Therefore, there will not be much change in terms of monetary policy. "Left Xiaolei said.
This means that monetary policy will remain moderately loose in the second half of the year. It is reported that in the second half of this year, Hualing heavy trucks aimed at the development momentum of auto financial mortgages, and determined to focus on promotion in the second half of the year. Liu Hanru, chairman of Valin Auto, told Commercial Auto News: “We have cooperated with China Everbright Bank, Bank of Communications, and Huishang Bank for financial business this year, with a quota of RMB 2 billion. We will vigorously promote auto mortgage loans in the second half of this year. Promote sales."
However, according to Wang Xiaoguang, because car mortgages are not the mainstream way for commercial vehicles to purchase vehicles, they are unlikely to be affected by monetary policy.
Fixed-asset investment: experts and companies have different views
From 2009 to 2010, the heavy-duty truck market was unusually hot, thanks to the country’s 4 trillion yuan in investment infrastructure. However, with the 4 trillion yuan investment approaching the end, with the introduction of a series of real estate control policies, the heavy truck market in the second half of the year is difficult to show explosive growth.
Wang Xiaoguang believes that: From the point of view of infrastructure and real estate, the commercial vehicle market will grow steadily in the next few years, with little possibility of explosive growth.
“The state’s investment in infrastructure construction is actually more than 4 trillion yuan, and local governments also have investment and construction.†Wang Xiaoguang said: “There are many advances in investment. From a short-term perspective, including the second half of 2010, I think infrastructure construction will not be a big problem, because now we have not seen the trend of weakening real estate investment, whether it is domestic macro-control of real estate, or industrial adjustment in the real estate industry.In the long run, in the coming years, The scale of national infrastructure construction is definitely declining gradually, and it is expected that the investment in infrastructure will show a significant decline by 2012 or 2013. Trucks have a close relationship with infrastructure construction, so they will certainly be affected. The situation of the commercial vehicle market will be severe next year. The truck has been updated in 2006~2007, and part of the demand may be updated in 2011~2012."
Liu Hanru believes that the sales situation of heavy trucks in the second half of this year is not optimistic. “The high-speed growth of the market in the first half of this year was unusual, with an increase of 100%, so I expect the rate of decline to reach 100% in the second half of the year. From the economic situation in the second half of the year, the dump truck will be the most affected. "He said.
Industry policy: New energy development plan will be introduced
In the second half of the year, the favorable policies for the auto industry will continue, but their driving effects will be significantly weakened. The introduction of new policies for energy-saving and new energy vehicle subsidies will in turn further stimulate the automotive market. Wang Xiaoming, deputy researcher of the Department of Industrial Economics Research of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that it is unlikely that the traditional automotive sector will issue targeted policies in the second half of the year. The policy of “cars going to the countryside†and trade-in policies will continue to be implemented, and the “energy saving and new The development plan for the energy automobile industry (hereinafter referred to as the "planning") is expected to come out. It is reported that the "plan" will be reported to the State Council before the end of July, and will be promulgated and implemented after adoption. Wang Xiaoming said: "The "planning" focuses on medium- and long-term goals and has an impetus for the development of energy-saving and new energy automotive industries. These new technologies require new companies to enter, so the "planning" will allow social resources to enter the new energy field. â€
In other words, in addition to the traditional auto companies that can obtain new energy vehicle production qualifications, social capital, parts and components companies that want to enter the field of new energy vehicles also have hope. As for the specific entry method, whether a parts and components company enters the entire vehicle field or whether a complete vehicle company assembles parts and components enterprises depends on the development of both parties.
"Planning" is a programmatic document for the development of the new energy automotive industry from 2010 to 2020, covering all aspects of the development of the new energy automotive industry. It not only clarifies the development direction, development route, and scale of development of the new energy automotive industry, but also extends to the entire The industrial chain includes R&D, marketing, and supporting facilities for key components.
Passenger and cargo traffic: slower growth of freight traffic and higher passenger traffic growth
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that, due to the impact of the macro economy, the volume of road freight encountered a historical low in growth in 2009, but since May 2009, it has apparently rebounded and turned better. This year, with the exception of February, the monthly road freight volume has remained at about 1.8 billion tons, and the April road freight volume has reached the highest value of 1.98 billion tons since March 2009.
Dai Dingyi, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that the trend of logistics is closely related to the national economy. Affected by the national economy, the expansion of the scale of the logistics industry will gradually slow down in the second half of the year, and more will be in structural adjustment and production methods. Transformation, business model innovation to do some work. He believes that the freight market as a whole will maintain a steady development, and the total amount will continue to maintain the growth momentum, but the regional distribution will be adjusted. Western development and inland growth may replace the structure of the coastal areas. "It should be noted that this change is slow and requires a process." Dai Dingyi said.
Zheng Qingping, analyst at Debang Securities, predicts that road freight will increase by 15% in the second half of the year, and road passenger traffic will increase by 10%. This is mainly driven by the World Expo and the Asian Games.
Road freight transport is greatly affected by investment, and road passenger transport is more affected by consumption factors. Affected by the financial crisis, China's inbound tourism suffered heavy losses at the end of 2008. However, with the gradual recovery of the economy, after experiencing its initial strong rebound phase, the current tourism market has entered a normal growth track, with various source markets (entry and exit). Both domestic and domestic resume normal growth. This means that the passenger transport market will achieve relatively stable growth in the second half of the year.