Crude oil prices drop or the adjustment price fell to gasoline wholesale prices began to loosen

Yesterday (May 9th), the domestic refined oil price adjustment window was officially opened. However, due to the international oil prices continued to fall on the 6th, to close at 97.18 US dollars a barrel, the industry have been optimistic about the possibility of raising oil prices in the short term. According to Treasure Island's latest market monitoring yesterday, the petrol wholesale price of some oil giants in southern China is bright and steady. The turnover of gasoline is 100 to 200 yuan per ton, and the price starts to loosen.

When the price adjustment window opened on the 9th, when the time condition of “22 working days” was met, the price change rate of crude oil in the three places declined slightly, but Xu Xu, an analyst at Treasure Island, pointed out that the rate of change was still as high as 6.77% at 4%. Above the red line, the theoretical price adjustment is still valid.

Due to the successive setbacks in international crude oil, if the practice is followed, the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to postpone the time for price adjustments until the rate of change of oil prices in the three places falls back to less than 4%. At the same time, the two major corporations are applying for a reduction in the consumption tax for refined oil products. In the later period, the country or the downstream share the pressure of the refinery costs. Therefore, the price adjustment is quite variable.

“Although the domestic refined oil price adjustment window was officially opened this week, but the outer disk of crude oil prices decline is alarming, the price adjustment may be stranded, the market outlook, still depends on the trend of crude oil may be.” Zhao Xu said.

The market expects WTI oil prices to bottom this week or around $95/barrel and wait for a rebound. If disappointing economic data will exacerbate the market's concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth, the dollar will continue to strengthen, and further pressure on risky assets such as crude oil. At that time, New York's oil price may fall to the US$90/bbl mark.

The price of diesel oil is still strong. Yesterday, the wholesale price of Sinopec gasoline in the Guangdong market was stable, but the actual turnover was 100 to 150 yuan per ton. Guangdong PetroChina also offers 200 yuan per ton of gasoline. The price of diesel oil in Huizhou CNOOC fell by 0.02 yuan per liter, and the price of gasoline fell by 0.03 yuan per liter.

In addition, the price of gasoline in Shandong Province has fallen rapidly. Dongying Area Shida, Lijin, Hualong, Zibo Jincheng, HSBC, Gaoqing Hongyuan, Binzhou Jingbo, Jinan Great Wall and Huaji II, Dezhou Hengyuan, Qingdao Anbang, and Rizhao Shida SINOPEC There is a downward adjustment, ranging from RMB 40 to RMB 400 per ton.

Zhao Xu told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, now, there are disagreements on the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel, and diesel has become tense. Due to rising demand and power shortages in East China and South China, resources tend to shrink. With regard to prices, it will continue to maintain its high level and it will be difficult to loosen in the short term. The sales policy of the oil companies is still dominated by controlled sales, and multiple regions have stopped for distribution, only for terminals.

However, the gasoline market can be said to be "heavy fire." Downstream purchases are prudent, and they are more demand-driven. The gasoline market, which should have entered the peak season, has yet to show signs of active trading. Although the quotes of the oil companies are stable, they are more favorable in terms of quantity and prices. The prices are loosened and the prices are light and difficult to change.

According to Li Bing, analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information Technology, the international crude oil prices have successively declined, and the domestic refined oil market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The NDRC’s expectation of lowering refined oil prices has weakened. Gasoline prices in some regions have begun to decline, stimulating shipments, and overall market volume has remained at a low level. Affected by the shortage of diesel resources, the oil companies still implement the strategy of controlling sales, and the prices are mainly firm for the time being. In the short term, it is difficult for the market to make big changes.